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Demographic Risk Atlas
The Demographic Risk Atlas deals with population ageing and
shrinking in the Regions and countries of the European Union. It offers a
comparative overview of demographic change in the European Union between 1990
and 2030, pointing to the similarities it presents in some respects
and the high diversity it shows in others, particularly on the regional level.
Country Profiles
Each country profile starts with some basic information: the country`s area and
density (both 2004), its geographic position and its division into NUTS2 regions,
shown in two maps.Then demographic change on the country level is described, with reference to its
regional diversity: population ageing, population growth, and the resulting RDC
(Regional Demographic Change) Index values and RDC Type. The latter two are also shown in three Charts: The
Index bar indicates the past (1990-2004) and future (2004-2030) RDC Index values
calculated on the level of countries; a coloured map displays the diversity of future RDC Index values calculated on
the regional level; a matrix finally presents the projected RDC Type for the
regions of a country against the background of the spread of all EU regions conforming to their RDC Type in the period
2004-2030.
On the second page of a country profile, RDC in the total population is
contrasted with ageing and shrinking in the working-age population (15-64 years).
Values for ageing and population growth or shrinking are summarised in a table
for all (in smaller countries) or a selection of the country`s regions (in
larger countries).This part leads up to the analysis of regional demographic
location risk (RDLR).A general risk evaluation of the country`s regions is given first. The
corresponding RDLR measure for each region is calculated as arythmetic mean of
the scores of four location fields and reaches from -5
(highest RDL risk) to +5 (highest RDL chance). An elven-colour map sums up the
general RDLR evaluation for the country`s regions, reaching from deepest red (highest
RDL risk) to deepest green (highest RDL opportunity).
Regional Profiles
The 264 regional profiles also each start with some basic information: the
region`s area and density (in 2004) and its geographical position in the country,
indicated by a small-sized map. RDC is the described
in four charts and an accompanying text. In a first chart, two overlapping "pyramids"
display changes in the age structure beweteen 2004 and 2030. In a second chart,
the future time paths of labour-related age groups are drawn. While the pyramids
show changes in the shares of single-year age groups in total population, the
time paths point to changes in size (numbers) of 10-year age groups. A third
chart displays the difference in ageing between the total population and tne
working-age subgroup in a region, by indicating mean agbes at four points in
time: 1990, 2004, 2015 and 2030. The second part of the regional profile is
dedicated to the analysis of regional demographic location risk (RDLR)."
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